House of Assembly elections 2018 Tasmania Live Result and Reaction

House of Assembly elections 2018

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9.22pm. The ABC is now calling 13 seats for the Liberals, whose 2.16 quotas in Denison make them certain of a second seat. The only question for them is whether they make it to fourteen by winning the last seat in Franklin ahead of the Greens.

8.57pm. Similarly, Greens member Rosalie Woodruff is less vulnerable to leakage in Franklin than the third Liberal, who will presumably be Nic Street.

8.53pm. The Greens aren’t quite gone in Bass: their member, Andrea Dawkins, has 6.8% with the other Greens on 2.5%. The first Labor candidate, Michelle O’Byrne, is bang on a quota and will have nothing to bequeath as preferences. That leaves the second strongest Labor candidate, Jennifer Houston, on 3.7%, and needing a very tight flow of preferences from the other Labor candidates, who collectively add up to 6.3%. So while Labor has 1.62 quotas to the Greens’ 0.56, they are more vulnerable to preference leakage.

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8.39pm. Clear results are Liberal three and Labor two in Braddon and Lyons, and I just about think you can say Labor two, Liberal two and Greens one in Denison, with 59.4% counted. The two question marks are Labor versus the Greens in Bass, where the Liberals have three and Labor one, with Labor leading for the last spot; and Liberal versus the Greens in Franklin, from a base of Liberal two and Labor two, which is very hard to call.

8.31pm. A question now of following Denison and seeing that the Liberal quota results holds, which is presently 2.17 with 57.2% counted.

8.22pm. Nearly half the vote counted now in Denison, and the Liberals are keeping their head comfortably above two quotas. Antony isn’t quite ready to call it though. Very likely result though is status quo, with Ella Haddad replacing Madeleine Ogilvie as second Labor member.

8.17pm. Very tight in Franklin, with 55.5% counted. The Liberals are on 2.86 quotas; the Greens on 0.88; the Liberals will presumably get Shooters preferences; the Greens might get boosted by leakage. Complicated.

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In Franklin, the incumbent Premier Will Hodgman is polling very well and is clearly re-elected.

Mr Hodgman could end up with a higher vote than his 2014 result, which was the highest in the state.

Two Liberals will be elected in Franklin, and in the tally room sitting Liberal member Nic Street is anxiously waiting to see if he may be a third on the strength of Mr Hodgman's vote.

"Will Hodgman is still the most popular politician in the state," Mr Street said.

Greens look set to be downsized
Greens leader Cassy O'Connor has been re-elected in the Hobart seat of Denison, but she could be leading a smaller party.

In Bass, the Greens' Andrea Dawkins is in real danger of losing her seat.

She was elected on a countback when Kim Booth retired.